Robert Ciemniak, the founder and chief strategist of Real Estate Foresight, was a chess player in Poland in his early years. He was a champion of Poland under 20 (1992) and 16 (1991), 12th in the World Chess Championships in 1992 in Argentina, with his highest ELO ranking of 2450 in 1992, and an International Master in chess title since 1993. While he’s no longer active on the chess boards (except for fun game time with his kids), the principles of the rigorous, deep and objective analysis now form the core philosophy of research at Real Estate Foresight.
For example - see Robert’s article for Institutional Real Estate, Inc. “Housing Gambit - The Multiplayer Game of Investing in China’s Residential Market” from April 2021.
The note proposes a 'mental model' for understanding the China housing markets in the near term - as a game between four major players:
- local governments who sell land and also control local restrictions and policies
- developers
- lenders
- home buyers
plus the central policymakers setting the broader rules. Looking at the market through such a lens may better explain the market dynamics than the demand-supply economics models.
Broader chess lessons for business?
“To me, the most intriguing thing about what we can learn from chess is the process of improving our way of thinking through analysis of our own past games.
Not merely in evaluating the specific moves – but rather the patterns of thinking and reviewing what led us to a good (or bad) plan or move at the time in a particular game. The answer is often in the process.
Now, taking this to the business world, how many businesses regularly review their past ‘games’ and what they have learned from them?”
A number of books have been published about chess lessons for life and business, incl. by the former world chess champion Gary Kasparov, ‘How Life Imitates Chess’. A US chess prodigy, Josh Waitzkin and his ‘The Art of Learning’, and Bruce Pandolfini, the chess coach, in ‘Every Move Must Have a Purpose’.
As for the actual chess, here’s a selection of Robert’s games from some 20 years ago: