Here's our updated 'bubble chart animation' for China new home prices.

It is based on the official monthly NBS new home price growth indices for 12-month changes (X-axis) vs the cumulative change since the downturn started in mid-2021 (Y-axis) to the latest October 2025 data (also see the direct link here in case the embedded video doesn't show below):

-Shanghai remains a clear outlier - a relative outperformer on both measures

-But that's only really since mid-2024; earlier, Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Xi'an were 'in the lead'

-Hangzhou and Chengdu follow Shanghai, and also stand out from the rest throughout the period

-Within Tier-1 cities, there are big differences

-Except for a few cities, almost everyone is in the 'bottom-left' corner

We look at this data as a viable comparison of the relative performance of cities (for new home prices only, though), while the actual percentage figures may be distorted (across the cities) by composition changes, earlier rules on price floors (here, the local policies can vary significantly), and other data caveats.

Arithmetically, it's possible for a city to show a positive growth for new home prices thanks to the sales of higher-end properties, even if these higher-end properties offer/sell at discounts.