China Property Signals (#47): A Postcard From Guilin/Yangshuo

About this Newsletter: Get a quick but more granular view of (still) one of the most important sectors in China, with the weekly chart and commentary from Real Estate Foresight (REF) - drawing on 14+ years of REF's research on China housing markets.

Here's an example of how the 5-year downturn in China housing shows in the official NBS data for a lower-tier city - Guilin in Guangxi Autonomous Region, a 3-4 hour train ride from Hong Kong I had a chance to take last week.

Note that the degree of price declines shown here is at the city-index level (NBS price growth indices), not the 'like-for-like feel' on the ground. But it tends to show accurate overall trends and relative performance vs other cities.

Guilin is one of the weaker ones vs 69 other cities:

Large inventory (3 years to clear, by some estimates), no residential land sales in Jan-Aug 2026, limited new home sales and new projects characterise the Guilin market.

Projects that are active (based on our AI-assisted checks on 20 projects), range in prices from RMB 4-5k psqm at the lower-end, 7-9k in more core areas, and with some premium case at 17k.

Where is Guilin:

Source: Google Maps

Evergrande Plaza in Guilin 'shines':

But for the visitors to the mountains, it's just beautiful nature, clean air, good food, and affordable travel. Highly recommended.

To discover more about our work on China property, please message Robert Ciemniak directly or visit https://www.realestateforesight.com